11/22 -Del Mar Horse Racing Picks

Del Mar’s Friday card was washed out after an unusually heavy dose of Southern California rain. With the moisture lingering, today’s surface could play differently than the typical wet track.

Last week, when the track came up wet, we saw an uncommon pattern for Del Mar: closers were making big late moves, while early speed didn’t hold as strongly as it normally does on a sealed or moisture-affected surface. That dynamic could repeat—but as always, it’s smart to watch the first couple of races closely to get a read on how today’s track is playing.

Tread lightly early, adjust if needed, and most importantly—have fun. Good luck whether you’re heading out to Del Mar or playing along from home. Cheers!

Here are my picks for today:

Race 1-#3 Definitely Probable — ML 3-1

Dropping in class for the Doug O’Neill barn, this 2-year-old filly looks poised to take a step forward today. She adds blinkers and stretches out to a mile—both positive moves that signal intent. The class relief combined with the equipment change should help her focus early and put her in a much better position throughout.

Race 4- #8 Aloha Dreamin — ML 7-2

This 4-year-old daughter of Flameaway returns off a lengthy layoff, but trainer Bob Hess excels in this scenario, winning at a solid 17% with runners coming back after 180+ days. She also drops in class today, and Hess connects at 22% when moving horses from Maiden Special Weight to Maiden Claiming—a meaningful angle at this level.

If Aloha Dreamin comes back with anything close to the talent she showed in her debut back in early 2024, she should be right there at the finish. A major player if she fires fresh.